UAB/Marshall Under 44 2.2% play
Low total here already, but I don’t think it is low enough. This is a Championship game, cold weather 33 degrees, and two top defenses that have been good stopping the run, and stopping the pass, we also have two slightly overrated offenses in my opinion, and both defenses have been excellent in the red zone and both among the slowest playing teams ranking 92nd and 113th in plays per game.
UAB facing a top defense the last 2 years have scored 21, 20, 13, 7, 2, and 20, and Marshall probably one of the best they have faced over that time period as Marshall ranks 5th in ypc, and 5th in EPA run defense. If UAB gets stuck it he run game Marshall has a very good pass rush, and a very good pass defense so points would be at a premium. I have UAB scoring 13-17 points in this one.
Marshall’s offense has to go up against a top defense, which they faced two this season and scored 17 and 20 points. The game against App State is probably the most comparable to this game on Friday night and Marshall won 17-7. The other game against Florida Atlantic’s defense which also ranks similarly across the board in run and pass defense, and Marshall only put up 20 points, and dating back to 2019 when this team plays a top defense they averaged just 15.6 points per game. I have Marshall scoring 14-20 points in this game so even on the high end of both of my projections 20-17 we have 37 total points.
